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The Big One

AIR DATE: Wednesday, April 21st 2010
Download the mp3 for this show.

After the recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Northern Mexico, and China, we heard from plenty of you that it was time for a conversation about the seismic realities in our own backyard. We agree.

State geologists are clear: there's a 10-14% chance that a major earthquake will hit Oregon in the next 50 years. While there are other faults in the Northwest, the big quake — which could reach a 9.0 magnitude — would come from the Cascadia Subduction Zone (pdf). It comes every 300 or so years, and the last one was was in 1700. Are our people and places ready for the next one?

When we asked what you want to hear about, the big theme that emerged was community preparedness, and we'll tackle that with the head of Portland's Office of Emergency Management. We'll also take on the geology of the region with Portland State's Scott Burns, and infrastructure readiness with the state bridge engineer. What else concerns you — or makes you curious?

What questions have the last few months of seismic devastation raised for you?

Tagged as: earthquake · emergency preparedness

Photo credit: Major Clanger / Creative Commons

It appears there are advantages to living in the Willamette Valley, rather than at the coast...unless we have an earthquake that registers about 12 or 13 on the Richter scale, we won't have to worry about any direct effects from a tsunami, since it would be unable to get over the Coast Range. We would still experience indirect effects of a tsunami, mainly from those who were fast enough to get out of the way and get across the mountains before landfall of the tsunami. (It goes without saying that we would experience the effects of the quake itself, however.)

Penny, a 13.0  quake will probably make Eugene a coastal community.

That was my point!

I've added to my comments from your December show, "Is Oregon Prepared." They apply equally to this topic.

A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake (the really big one) will be larger than anything California will ever experience and we're within the window right now for this to occur. This event will directly affect 10 million people from northern California to southern British Columbia and will impact the economies of the USA and Canada for decades.

Transportation corridors will cease to exist (Hwy 101, I-5, I-84). Coastal communities will be isolated from the valley and from each other. Power, gas, communications gone for days or weeks. Thousands injured, tens of thousands displaced.

And we all need to get real, because it's not just about you. It's your family and friends, your neighborhood, your community, where you work, where you worship... and new research suggests the chances of this happening may be much higher that we thought...

Many communities take preparedness very seriously, especially at the coast, where they are vulnerable to both a CSZ earthquake and the subsequent tsunami (think Indian Ocean and 250,000 people dead from the tsunami), but for the most part, Oregon is woefully under-prepared.

We've really only known that we have this massive threat (CSZ) sitting off our coast for about the last 20 years and the state and local communities have only been working on preparing for the eventual magnitude 9+ earthquake and tsunami for about the last 15 years.

Preparedness is not a short term fix, but a long term project, whether you're a family or a state. For example, Oregon hopes to have all vulnerable schools seismically strengthened by 2032.

Ultimately, preparedness is a personal responsibility. When we get the big one, nobody is riding in on a white horse to save you (think Katrina), in fact 80% of all rescues in an earthquake are done by your neighbors.

James Roddey (503) 807-8343
Earth Sciences Information Officer
Oregon Department of Geology

Animal behavior before earthquakes has been recorded for centuries. I think animals are our only hope for some forewarning. Since Oregon does't get all the earthquakes California gets we should take our animals behavior seriously. I am designing a web site where animal earthquake behavior can be posted quickly with email and text message notification when there are postings. The site name is petearthquake.com. I hope to have the site up and running in a month or two.

What is the effect of a Tsunami on the lower Columbia River?  What is extent of geologic evidence deep inland of the 1700 Cascadia Earthquake? 

Will there be a flashflood phenomena deep inland as on the coast destroying bridges, riverports, docks and even proposed LNG sites?  Should Tsunami preparedness be extended to port cities on the lower Columbia?  IF so how deep inland?

I first learned of the CSZ in the early '90's when my husband and I took the Portland Neighborhood Emergency Team training (NET). They told us that damage to Portland from the quake would be severe. We were warned that core drilling samples and studies of Indian legends show the quakes happen every 250-300 years, and so we are already past due for "the big one".

In addition to everyone having a to-go kit nearby, they warned us to always have shoes by the bedside (broken glass!), flashlights with spare batteries, and bicycles to navigate the broken roads. They also wanted to have someone in each neighborhood to have a gas powered chain saw, with extra gasoline, to help with the rescue of family and neighbors, and to help clear downed trees from roads so rescue workers could pass through. We were told not to expect emergency services, and to be self-reliant for at least 3 days. Have cash on hand, because your ATMs won't be working and prices for necessities could become sky-high.

The Red Cross has lots of resources available. The more we do ahead of time, the less problems we will have during the emergency.

Elisa D. in Portland

I found some free online courses to help prepare citizens for disasters, offered through FEMA. Here are the addresses:

CitizenCorp at: www.citizencorps.gov

and also Emergency Management Institute's Independent Studies (online courses)  at:  www.training.fema.gov/IS/

Elisa D. in Portland

Recent earthquakes around the world should definitely have Oregonians questioning whether they're prepared for the "Big One." If not, now -- when the earth's not shaking -- is a great time to get ready.

The basic steps are easy; get a kit, make a plan and be informed. There's a free interactive tutorial explaining how to do just that at www.oregonredcross.org/beredcrossready.

We've also got a ton of earthquake preparedness tips available at www.oregonredcross.org/earthquakes. Tsunami tips are at www.oregonredcross.org/tsunamis.

Making preparedness relevant, interesting and maybe even FUN for Oregonians is something that the Red Cross is working hard to achieve. We've coined the term "prepare-aphernalia" (quirky products for your disaster kit), host a bi-weekly preparedness podcast (www.readyradio.org) and do our best to give helpful and entertaining preparedness tips on our blog (www.oregonredcross.org/blog) and Twitter (@RedCrossPDX).

As we like to say, we're putting the rad in readiness...in hopes that Oregonians of all ages will be prepared for anything -- the "Big One" included.

Lise Harwin, Communications Director

American Red Cross -- Oregon Trail Chapter

503-969-7474

Would the state bridge engineer please discuss which Portland bridges are likely to fail during a large earthquake.  Which bridges are likely to survive?  What about Portland's tunnels?  Will the Sunset tunnel collapse.  What about the light rail tunnel, and big pipes on either side of the Willamette River.  Will Portland's open reservoirs be affected?   There are numerous natural gas and petroleum pipelines in the Portland area and Willamette valley.  How does a major earthquake affect pipelines.

Considering the gridlock Portland suffers after a dusting of snow what happens when most of the aging bridges over the Willamette river, and  many bridges along the regions freeways collapse?  Has Portland's Office of Emergency Management planned for the chaos that will follow a major earthquake?  I realize many bridges and structures have been 'retrofitted', but until there is an earthquake no one really know which will survive and which will collapse.   

One thing my family finally updated after Haiti was our emergency contact list (large and small).

1. How should people contact you in an emergency?
2. If someone can't reach you, who can they call to come check on you?
3. Who will you contact outside your area to let people know how you are?

I have water, food, money, etc. set aside. Probably not enough (or the right) medical supplies, but you cannot know how well prepared you are until the disaster happens and you see what you have left and what you need. The thing on my list that I don't have yet is a solar battery charger. I actually do, in a pinch, because I have back yard solar lights, that run off rechargeable batteries and I could use those, but it would require a ladder and tools every time.

Which reminds me, the one thing I would like to see changed is with alternative power. Right now, in Portland you could have your house covered with solar panels, but if the grid goes down, you don't have power. The power you generate goes to the grid and you cannot switch it to run your house while the grid is down. That makes us more vulnerable than we need to be.

If you're looking for a sample emergency contact card that can be easily printed and stored, we've got one right here:

http://www.oregonredcross.org/pdf/Emerg_contact.pdf

What is the probability that Bonneville dam will be damaged; and if it is a probability what are the consequences for the lowlands in Portland?

I'm very interested in the speakers explaining some of the practical things everyone should one in case a large earthquake occurs -- what should you have in your survival kit? Where should it be placed in your home? Where should you run in your home or elsewhere to be safest while waiting out the earthquake? I've always heard to get under something and hold on -- what if you're in your bedroom and you can't get under the bed or the dressars? What if the only thing in sight is a flimsy table? Is that cautious enough? What sort of thing do you need to be "under" to be safe? etc. . .

I would feel much calmer about all of this if I knew that I could do everything possible to protect myself and my family in the moment during a large earthquake.

Valerie,

You ask good questions. With regard to kits, the American Red Cross has checklists that provide a wide range of things you can include. Kits in your home should probably not be kept in your basement. I think a kit in a small out building (garden shed) is a good idea. You seem to think that you will be home when this happens. That may not be the case. A kit in your car is also a good idea.

As far as where to protect yourself from quake damage, basically wherever you can. You may not have the ability to move around to where you want to go. Duck under something, cover your head from falling debris, and hold on until it's owner. Then move outside to an open area.

With regard to protecting your family, it's important to understand that the odds of you all being together is slim. (work, school, activities, etc) Therefore, you need to educate yourself to educate your kids, so they know to "duck, cover and hold" during an earthquake wherever they are. Also a good idea is to designate a non-local person that everyone is to call as soon as they can. (Grandma in Ohio, for example. Not portland, not Seattle not Eugene) That way, you can learn where people are as soon as possible.

Finally, make friends with your neigbors. You will need each other.

PC

Pat's advice is right on. Other suggestions:

If you're interested in learning more about "drop, cover and hold on," I'd suggest checking out this website: http://dropcoverholdon.org/

For all your other questions (what to put in a kit, what to do in an earthquake), a great place to get started is with this free interactive class at www.oregonredcross.org/beredcrossready.

How high might the water rise in the Portland area and the Willamette Valley?

I've been concerned since the mild quake of 92 shook my hillside. Have been trying to get information from NW Natural in particular about fire hazards from natural gas pipelines and standing pilot lights. 

In a quake, will NW Natural cut all gas service instantly??? Can they???

As I understand it, the damage in the "great San Francisco earthquake" was primarily from fire from gas lines.

We are a region of wooden houses and commercial buildings. They might well stand through a quake...but begin burning immediately.

I can't listen live today, but hope you will address this question. Haven't been able to get an answer since '92.

Thanks.  

MLM

Fires are to be expected shortly after the earthquake. There's not much to do about it other than expect it. If you live on a steep hillside, and it is alarge quake, your house will likely slide before it catches on fire. Remember also, that the odds of you being at home are less than 100 percent.

PC 

I lived in California and was government trained in disaster response.  I've lived through earthquakes small and large.  Moving to Oregon was fairly shocking in that there is almost no earthquake preparation by comparison.  This is especially surprising considering that our building codes have not been as strict as CA, so our houses and businesses would not fare well.

The good news is it's not too hard to prepare. Have camping supplies?  Put them into a large water resistant container with canned food, fuel and water for your family for at least 5 days.  Make sure it's accessible (as close to the outside as possible).  Many preparation kits are available online, as are instructions for building your own kit.  Consider preparing your house (bolting your house to the foundation can be fairly inexpensive and may raise your home value).  Be prepared! This is your opportunity to be a hero for your own household; make a plan for your family!

-Robyn Klopp

NET/CERT - Portland OEM held a rare meeting of their Neighborhood Emergency Team leaders just this last Tuesday. The assembled volunteers were basically told that, unlike many other jurisdictions, the City of Portland does not clearly indemnify the volunteers they train to respond to major disasters.

Because 65-75% of urban disaster response is actually neighbors helping neighbors, this critical aspect of our local preparedness portfolio should be addressed. A core group of trained volunteers in every neighborhood would address a lot of unnecessary suffering and even death.

Schools - If we learned anything from the China Earthquake, it should be the danger of having all of our children grouped in seismically unsound schools when a quake hits. News reports make it clear that Chile, a country of more modest means, did much more proactive work to close/replace building that were deathtraps. We should learn from their example.

Anniversary - We need to counteract the deeply held impression that this is not earthquake country, by having a very public observance of the anniversary of the last Cascadia Earthquake (Jan 26th, 1700). If we had our civic leaders observe this day, and even had something loud like the traffic stoppage/sirens that Hiroshima uses, people would stop for a moment and think. Maybe a small percentage each year would actually build their home kit, make a plan. That would add up.

Red Cross - There seems to be misconception about the Red Cross. Many people I talk to do not seem to realize that; a. They are not tasked with response, but with recovery (which they are masterful at). b. Their strength is their ability to mobilize and funnel an ever-increasing stream of materiel and people to the disaster area. If you are Vernonia and you have a flood, they can cover it with largely local resources, but in a huge regional event they too will be overwhelmed and it will take time, a great deal of time, before meaningful help arrives. This reality is why people in the know say your home kit should be for at least a week, not 72 hours.


We live in a liquifaction region in Hillsboro. What does this mean for us - are there any special preparations we need to make to survive a large earthquake?

If you live in an urban area with overhead powerlines and a not-too-sturdy house - where is the best place to go during an earthquake?

I believe earthquakes are unlikely to be long enough to move locations, and moving during the quake is dangerous anyway.  Advice from experts is to shelter under a strong piece of furniture until the shaking stops, then move to safety.  You can also retrofit your home ahead of time!

Our earthquake insurance is very expensive and the deductible is extrememly high.  One insurance agent told us it wasn't worth it because the deductible is so high you might as well rely on FEMA.  Our rates keep going up and up. What do you think.

When escaping a tsunami, how far from the surfline does one need to be at the suggested elevation of 50-100ft?  If one stays at a house 1/8 - 1/4 miles from the surfline, at an elevation of 80 ft., with that being the highest point around, does one still need to flee?

Maira,

The key is elevation more than distance from the surfline. If you are in a house at 80 feet, stay put. It would be a bummer to flee an 80 foot location for a 100 foot location but get caught by the tsunami on the way because you have to travel through low land to get there.

Now that you know that your house is in a relatively good spot, consider all of the other locations you visit when at the coast (beach, shops, restarants, golf courses, church, etc.) and scope out high-enough destinations that you can get to on foot in 15 minutes. 

PC

I, and many others, live near a fault line in Northeast Oregon (near Hot Lake), and I wonder if the earthquake that may happen off the coast could cause and earthquake to arise from the Northeast Oregon faultline?

So glad to hear this show.  I moved to Portland from California 3 years ago and was surprised that nobody here seems to be worried about earthquakes.  I look out on the landscape and see many mountains and even an active volcano right in our backyard  - how do people think those things were created?  Even if we haven't had a major earthquake here in 200 or even 2000 years, that's a short period of time in the history of the earth. 

Mt. St. Helens gave warnings that went on for months: tremors, puffs of steam, ash, landslides and minor eruptions. It was a great topic of conversation and comedy. Somehow that gorgeous conic mountain we lived with wasn't really going to explode. The fifty-four people who died up there didn't believe it would blow while THEY were there. (Afterward the rest of us wore dust masks and dusted ash off early blooming roses.)

Thanks for your observation.

The idea that the Steel Bridge is a sitting duck scares me as a MAX rider. Why can't we fund an earthquake warning system?

Earthquakes don't give any warning.  Watch out for those massive concrete blocks on the Steele and Hawthorne bridges.  You don't want to be near those when they fall.

An electronic alarm triggered at the coast could reach you about 45 seconds before the real shaking would arrive in Portland. 

Any structure made from masonry (i.e., all the gorgeous old apt houses & office bldgs in Portland, if they haven't undergone a renovation in the last 10-15 years) will collapse into rubble. Think Kobe in Japan. So if you live or work in one of these, that's something to think about.

The Portland School District's renovations of school buildings of late have all included reinforcing the brick walls with rebar, to hold the roof up so kids will have time to get out.

(But many old historic buildings haven't had the same attention, because of lack of money. Union Station in downtown Portland--which the city owns now--will be rubble, because the city hasn't found any money to fix it.)

Lots of great Info!

I used to live in Japan, and lots of people assumed they were prepared. I believe they are better prepared than folks in Oregon, but when the big Kobe earthquake struck in '95, it showed the government and local folks and emergency crews were not as prepared as they had thought. From this, I take the lesson that you just can't predict Mother Nature. There are lots of great innovations to building code done in Japan, but nothing is perfect. Every person just needs to be ready and expect that help may not be available to you when it hits.

Another mistake the Kobe area made was not accept outside help immediately after the devastation. It took the government a bit of time to get that outside help, and that cost lives. In Oregon, when it hits, the city and state crews should accept any help they can get and not try to do everything themselves, alone....that is the one big lesson learned from the Kobe earthquake in Japan...just my two yen's worth....

Keep your home supplies - water, food, fuel, matches, flashlights, handcrank radio - in an accessible place.  We keep ours in a back yard shed which , even if it collapese, will be more accessible than, say, the basement.

Also, keep your bedside flashlight tucked between the mattress and boxspring.  I had kept mine on the nightstand for years before the Northridge quake and it flew across the room during the quake and I couldn't find it for days afterward.

True, it wasn't till 1990 that officials acknowledge the quake risk in Portland. But, while at the science section at The Oregonian in the mid-1980s, I wrote quite a lot about the USGeological Survey's efforts to convince OR/Wash officials to take their heads out of the sand.
First, Brian Atwater found the "ghost trees" in Willapa Bay (Wash.). Then Thomas Heaton (in the article referred to below) worked with a Japanese geophysicist to uncover the historical records of a Japanese tsunami, which gave the USGS scientists the EXACT day of the last huge subduction quake in the  Pacific NW quake.

Here's info about a 1987 Oregonian article (accessible via MultcoLibrary):  Dec. 17, 1987 Author: LINDA ROACH MONROE -- GREAT NW QUAKE: FUTURE OR FANTASY? \

Scientists have uncovered a steadily growing body of evidence that has turned ``the great Northwest earthquake'' from a scientific musing to one of the hottest topics in seismology.

Just two years after first focusing serious attention on the idea, researchers gathered at an American Geophysical Union conference last week to hear about whether the Pacific Northwest has a huge earthquake in its future.

Muddy marsh banks, land deformation, computer models and statistics all suggest that the Northwest should prepare for a big jolt, they were told.......

I was recently in an earthquake class and we discussed where to go in an earthquake.  It was brought up that hiding under a table or desk or standing in a doorway were not the best areas to be during an earthquake as the tables could collapse and the door sheer under pressure from debris. 

The best place to be is outdoors away from things that could fall on you. If you can't get outside, then the "triangle" area next to table or desk is good.

Actually the "Triangle of Life" theory is not recommended.

You can learn more about the American Red Cross response to this technique here:

http://www.bpaonline.org/Emergencyprep/arc-on-doug-copp.html

(Note: We recommend "drop, cover and hold on")

The best preparation tips I ever received, from a CalTech geophysicist, Lucy Jones:
1. keep closed-toed shoes like sneakers by your bedside. There will be glass everywhere if the quake happens in middle of the night. You'll be hampered from the first minute after a big quake if your feet are all cut up.

2. Don't hang a picture, mirror or other heavy object over your bed. It will fall on your head.

3. If you commute to work by car, keep a napsack in your trunk containing good walking shoes, Power bar type snacks, and a few water bottles. To get home (or to find your kids at their school), you'll have to WALK there.

4. Keep an emergency fund of CASH, in small bills, in your emergency kit. ATMs won't work after a disaster happens. And people selling things you need on street corners won't make change. (This is one I learned not from Lucy Jones, but from being in S.Fla. after Hurricane Andrew.)

My question is about any relationship between earthquakes in the big subduction zones and activity in the Cascade Mountains, which obviously are active.

Thanks,

John

If you Q is: Is the CSZ what makes the Cascades? Yes, in that plate techtonics is pushing them both CSZ goes under the North American plate, but not smoothly and the friction causes wrinkles we see as the Cascades. Like pushing your toe under a rug, the rug bunches up (Cascades), then springs over your toe (which is now sud-ducted)

A question for Scott Burns: at some time in the future - maybe millions of years from now - will all the tectonic plates on Earth get to a point of equilibrium in which they will no longer push against each other and cause earthquakes?

When my parents home was totalled by hurricane Wilma I came home from Florida with a new understanding of the effects of natural disasters. I immediately put together the recommended emergency supplies required in the case of an earth quake. My family sat down and agreed on a meeting and communications plan. I contacted the city about safe, recommended meeting locations that may offer basic services or shelter in the cast of an earth quake. I received no reply. After repeated requests with no answer, my family decided we would meet at Lincoln High School and go from there.

Does the city have recommendations for safe shelters in the case of an earth quake?

Mary, (living on a fault on Council Crest)

As a structural engineer, I am worried that people are too optimistic about the practical efficacy of the types of preparedness that are most commonly mentioned. It would be realistic to presume that, in the event of a subduction-zone earthquake, the death toll in Oregon would be similar to that experienced in the recent Chile earthquake, like that experienced in the Kobe, Japan earthquake, or even a good bit worse. This is because the adoption of appropriate building code provisions has done little to improve the older building stock.

Most of Oregon's buildings are untested by earthquake. Many of the engineered structures were built before serious earthquake provisions were adopted. Engineering practice here may not be as good here as in California (compare Kobe and Tokyo), for a number of reasons. The effectiveness of seismic remediation, as practiced here, has yet to be demonstrated. The cost of effective remediation on a broad scale seems to be more than society is willing to afford. This has been amply studied by the City of Portland.

My advice to emergency planners would be to think in terms of a death toll in the range of several hundreds to a several thousands in the event of a subduction-zone earthquake striking Oregon

Thomas B. Higgins

What has Northwest Natural done to prepare?

Do they have shutoff valves for major natural gas trunk lines?

Are they installing large flexibile pipelines to carry natural gas?

Michaelrupp - I have the same question. Have contacted NW Natural periodically but never gotten a clear answer. I don't know if emergency management planners have addressed the issue or if it is presently being studied. 

Maybe someone will kindly post more info.

Can someone explain how safe the buildings on rollers are?  We live on the 21st floor of one of these bulidings in Portland.  What can we expect if a earthquake hits?

Thanks!

I have worked with a Portland company (Earthquake Tech) that specializes in home seismic retrofitting in Portland for the last several years. Many people here in Oregon still don't get the very real earthquake threat--even though geologists confirm this area is due for a big one.  This best way to protect a home from earthquake (or any seismic, earth shaking activity) is to get it retrofitted. Homes in San Francisco and the Bay Area that are retrofitted, for example, have a much better success rate of withstanding seismic activity. Getting home earthquake insurance normally requires earthquake retrofitting. To avoid massive damage that can occur (and has in other parts of the world), I hope more Oregonians take the precaution of preparing their houses with retrofitting!

Is a brick home more dangerous than a wood one? I live in a 1916 all brick bungalow? Is my home more dangerous than a wood constructed bungalow from the same era?

Thanks!

masonry homes are very prone to actual collapse and will almost certainly be unusable if they are still standing (aftershocks). 3-4 minutes of shaking is too long for brick & mortar and they basically fracture/grind/tear themselves progressively apart until they fail. Sorry.

One question that came up on the show was about coastal preparedness and supplies.

The American Red Cross has been hard at work pre-positioning disaster supply trailers in vulnerable communities, just in case resources from major cities aren't immediately available.

Just last spring, seven trailers were placed in Woodburn, Stayton, Silverton, Cave Junction, Sunny Valley, northern Klamath County and Harney County. For more information, see here:

http://www.oregonredcross.org/detalle_noticias.asp?id=3101&SN=200&OP=2855&IDCapitulo=663b0id44v

Also, for neighborhood groups, schools, etc... that are interested in free disaster preparedness training, we can help. Give us a call any time at 503-284-1234.

How will this affect Hawaii?

Is it wise to make our family calls to someone there?

Two things for the Portland metro area.  There is a state geo agency that published a detailed series of earthquake hazard maps. If you are considering a home purchase, look at these first (sorry, realtors!). I was surprised to see that in Beaverton there is a large area of soil that will cause major structural problems; this is far from the fault line that runs through downtown PDX.

Second: No, a wave will not wash over the coast range. If there is a tsunami headed straight for the coast it will cross the Columbia bar. What will the effect be of that wave as it travels inland, and what could be the expected distance of travel inland? 

I've been told that even if the tsunami wave itself doesn't reach Portland, there will be a back-up of the Columbia, as flow to the ocean is blocked by the incoming wave. Picture that you could put a curtain wall across the Columbia at, say, Longview WA, for one minute, and all the water flowing down the rivers has nowhere to go but will spread out as the water backs up. Consider the Cowlitz R. (elevation 3 feet where it joins Columbia), what will happen to Longview WA? And the Wmt R. is elevation 10 feet where it joins the Columbia, Sauvie Island might be under water?  Vancouver? PDX Airport and the levee at Marine Drive? How far does the backup go?  So, while the coastal impact of a tsunami has been studied ad infinitum, I have yet to see any answer to the river back-up question. Or is there nothing to worry about?  Could we see water 5, 10 feet above the flood stage in Portland and Northwest Indistrial zones?  What will happen to the Columbia Bar, will the sand bar be altered enough to bring a halt to shipping traffic as they sort out the new channel and dredge the shifted river sediment? And Seattle, wow.  Hasn't anyone tried to model the tsunami wave action in the Puget Sound? The ports?  What happens when a wall of water travels south and ends up in Tacoma and Olympia? As the water travels to narrower channels, it piles up higher.

I've seen no answers from any authority. Grad students: thesis topic and computer models, anyone?  

howdy,

cool website...like the comments from so many learned people.

i have a question: can anyone speak to the issue regarding the San Juan Islands up here in Washington? San Juan Island has been my home for 25 years. if the big one strikes, are we toast?

thoughts?

thanks, and warmest regards to all.

mikey

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