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Canary in the Economic Coal Mine

AIR DATE: Monday, November 3rd 2008
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Who's feeling the economic slowdown?

Turn on the news or open the newspaper and you're sure to run into a story about the economy -- one that's increasingly more about "Main Street" than Wall Street. In Oregon the tough times are being felt in many ways. People I've talked to have told stories of layoffs at architecture firms, decreased latte sales at coffee shops, and car dealerships not being able to get new cars off the lot. And then there was the report that people are saving money by skipping doctor's appointments or not filling prescriptions.

The Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland just announced that they expect their income to fall short of their 2008 budget by $750,000. But not to be the bearer of only bad news, there was a serious uptick in business license applications in Portland this month. And the Chinook Book -- and similar coupon books -- are doing great.

So what is the economic situation on "Main Street" or in your home? Is the daily coffee shop latte now a cup of home-dripped joe? Have you stopped going to museums, or shows? Have you cut back on veterinary or dentist visits? How is the economy directly affecting you right now? And what are the economic canaries you see in this coal mine?

Tagged as: business · jobs · recession

My economic situation s going downhill very quickly. I 'received' a favorable judgement fromSocial Security Disability back in June of this year, but have yet to receive my 'back-due' amount, as their supervisor said: We are waiting to see who wins the election before releasing those funds from the payment center. WHY should that Matter? He said "John McCan won't want us to pay the amount, and Barack Obama will want it paid immediately!" How insane! Meanwhile, I am falling behind on everything, and collection agencies are calling from 7:30 AM to 8:30 PM eery day of the week! I am getting less money from Oreon National Guard as well, because their available funds are drying up. YET the legislature and the Governor just got pay raise! WHY? I can hardly cover costs of getting to/from medical appointments, food and medicines, let alone car insurance, natural gas for heat, electric and phone bill and so on. What can be done?
johnjewkes —
Well, the latte went the way of the dodo in my budget years ago, I can get a month's caffiene in a bottle of Vivarin or Jet Alert for less than I used to spend in a day at Tully's or SBC.

No, the way I measure how tight things are is if I can afford to have meat in my noodles two or three nights a week or must I keep to the splash of olive oil, garlic, salt, and pepper? On the really tight weeks, it is the 3 or 2 limit; do I get to have 3 packages of ramen or just stick to two?

For me, the canary is how little garbage there is to haul (my normal work is running loads from a transfer station to a dump)... there is a lot less of it than anyone working now can remember, definitely way down from seasonal expectations. Mind you, less trash is a good thing overall, but it seems that it?s more from less consumption than greater recycling. Probably good choices overall as folks see the difference between real needs and ?really wants?... it?s just a wee bit of a challenge when work depends on taking out the trash.
tpohara —
Over the past 12 years my wife and I have owned and operated two bakeriers in the Portland/Vancouver area. About 18 monthes ago we could sense a downturn in the ecomony. At street level we talk with vendors,delivery drivers
customers, and industry peers. Production costs seemed to be accelerating at an overly excessive rate, wholesale orders continued to disapate & retail customers appeared more conservative with their discretionary dollars. In January of 2008 we were fortunate enough to sell our upscale European bakery & cafe here in East Vancouver and able to eliminate our debt load and reopen a new business witch is much more conducive to a slowing economy. In September we opened dot donuts, in Fisher's Landing (East Vancouver). We feel that people will gravitate more towards a familar product when they are cautious about spending. Our objective is to reinvent a segment of the industry thru quality and service without branding the concept as upscale. We feel our customer might not take a trip to Disneyland but would splurge for donuts for their family.

(open to discussing further, Stan Wilson, 360-944-3149) Thank you!

Stanfirsherslanding —
The sign for me, booking a trip---checked Expedia and others for hotel rates. This is truly unbelievable, baited breath---The Four Seasons had rates listed, and not just any rates, but discounted rates published on several travel websites. In all the years I've booked trips online, I have never seen the Four Seasons publish special rates on anything else but their own site. So if the pinnacle of luxury and good service is hurting...I can only imagine what it means for the rest of us.
scottmil —
The local hospice community sponsors support groups for grieving children and teens. Suicide has recently become a serious concern. The current economic situation seems to be one of the factors.
Cheryl from Bend —
Cheryl,

Do you mean that support groups for grieving children and teens increasingly include children/teens who may have lost a parent to suicide?
David Miller —
When I saw my clients accessing food banks in August I knew this would be a bad winter. I have a birthday party for myself this weekend, and I have new rules that went with the invite: no cards (unless homemade), and no presents, but guests must bring canned and non-perishable foods. I've done this several years now, and I am amazed and the GREAT food people bring (when they know that their friends will be seeing what they bring to my annual party). I provide great cake and they all get to feel good.
Bettythemom —
A big sign to me was the amount of people who chose to hunt this year. Hunting is a great way to supplement meat costs when times are tight. More people than I had ever seen chose to hunt this year in an attempt to save money on food costs.
bowerman61028 —
Sorry but blah, blah, blah, "doom and gloom" it's turned into a media spin. A depression is also when people are depressed, stop wishing for it. Everyone needs to get over the news and roll their sleeves up and get too work. Our work in recycling and manufacturing is booming, process upgrade lead-times are growing, fuel prices are down, even on the world economy $4 a gallon is 75% of the "real" price.

And yes, we have fleeced most of our easy money makers, US Manufacturing is the biggest mistake, then we tried to make money off of money, then we fleeced our homes, time to "pay the piper" in taxes, so stop the whining and get to work! Ride your bike! And smile!

john
john gogol —
We have changed nothing at our house. We have always been thrifty, its in my DNA. My parents were influenced by growing up in the shadow of the Depression and then environmentalism in the 60s. I save and use everything very carefully - I don't know how to live any other way. Its both to be light on the planet and to save money.
I laugh at all the people now marveling at how they are watching their spending for the first time, using the library instead of a bookstore, coupons, 2nd hand kids clothing, comparison shopping, etc. This is new to them but so many of us have always done these things. We have lived on one income for 8 years now and lived quite well with 2 kids and a beautiful neighborhood.
I think the economic shakeout in Portland was necessary. Really how many stores selling candles did we actually need?! The 'belt tightening' will be good for the planet.
petebarb —
I am a Naturopathic Family Physician and Midwife out in Gresham serving East County, the Columbia River Gorge and beyond. What I see in economic downturns is that I become much busier as we Naturopathic Physicians are a much less expensive option for health care for those without insurance. We find many will choose us for midwifery and pediatric care because we can offer these services to those without insurance at a great savings. We commonly see many children and adults with acute illnesses who otherwise would not have sought medical care because they are either uninsured or under-insured. Naturopathic Physicians offer wholistic medical care using a variety of modalities including herbal medicine, nutrition, and homeopathy. We can also prescribe many standard pharmaceutical drugs when indicated. Again for this reason we tend to become a failsafe option when people are financially challenged. Katherine Zieman, ND, LM
61986 —
I'm a single dad, with sole legal and physical custody of my 3 year old son. I've been unemployed recently, and we've been living off of my savings. I'm a planner, so I recently looked into public assistance programs, in the event that I exhaust my savings before landing a new job. I was appalled to discover that WIC nutrition benefits are available only to women with children, and not to men with children. Why does gender-base discrimination in federally-funded programs exist in Oregon in 2008? I thought we were a progressive state. A child's need for proper nutrition is not dependent on the gender of his/her parent.
kamanu —
I expect the severity of my consideration for career change is my coal mine canary.

I work part time, and do school at 3/4 time but due to the current lack of jobs and bleak outlook I am seriously considering going back into the Army to have a secure job. I am a veteran and HATE the thought of rejoining, but with my accumulating pile of debt I don't see to many other options. I am not alone in this, in fact my brother is thinking about doing the same thing but interestingly enough there are so many people trying to get into the army right now that it is a 5-6 month wait before being able to ship off, and this is in a time when we are FIGHTING 3 WARS!!! (Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan)

Also Porltand State University is saying that they may not be able to provide the same amount of loans at the college this next year, so retraining doesn't seem to be a viable option either!

thanks-
jon at PSU —
We saw plenty of canaries long before the current "crisis" unfolded. Food, oil, and energy prices have been on a steady rise for more than a year, mostly hurting people that were already struggling. I think we're beyond canaries now, seeing more obvious signs of a slowdown such as layoffs. Still, it's an important and interesting conversation.

On a personal level, we've decided to move out of our single-family house and into a cohousing community. Cohousing is basically a neighborhood where [i]every household owns their own residence[/i] in addition to sharing some common spaces and resources with others in the community.

In our case, it's a diverse mix of individuals and families on a bit of fertile land in NE Portland. By not trying to manage everything on our own, and instead bringing together people with a variety of skills, ages, and experiences, we hope to actually build a richer life for our child than we could ever do on our own. We plan to grow some of our own food together; to reduce our individual ecological footprints; to share child care, pet care, celebrations, and occasional common meals; to help each other with repairs or all the other things that make "independent" living such an elusive goal.

I'm not sure it's a canary in the coal mine, but when you see more and more cohousing communities forming around the nation, it may be a sign that there are compelling alternatives to what many consider the American Dream.
t.hamlin —
Deb Beers here. I spoke this morning about my new business in downtown Portland, Mildred's Beauty spot. After thinking a bit about what was said on the topic and reading some of these replies, I am not super-panicked about the economic "crisis". I always have and will continue to live on a budget and try to utilize resources that are already here, e.g. used furniture, equipment, etc. I suppose the canary for me would be when people start putting self-pampering on a back burner for things like dog food & gym memberships, but that's my niche -- reasonably priced beauty services for men & women because what's nicer than checking out for an hour with a nice well-priced facial or pedicure? We all deserve to relax a bit these days!
Deb Beers dba mildredsbeautyspot.com
debxonick —

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