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Well, keep in mind that with proportional delegation, Clinton should win SOME of the Superdelegates. Or do you argue that none of the superdelegates should represent the Clinton voters--which her pledged delegates represent.

posted 5 years, 3 months ago
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The superdelegate discussion is interesting, but premature. The reason so many are now hedging their bets and waiting to see what develops in the race--including Oregon's delegation--is because they want to see if either candidate can build a sizeable lead. If one does, they are apparently prepared to support that candidate.

Which candidate will it be? Thanks to proportional delegates, Obama has the big advantage. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations, he'll be somewhere in the +135 pledged delegate range after next Tuesday's Washington and Hawaii primaries. Using your formula, he's ahead 120 pledged delegates already (others have it slightly lower or higher). He'll increase his lead thanks to the homestate of Hawaii and leads in Wisconsin that appear to be widening (see pollster.com).

So when we get to Texas and Ohio, proportionality makes it far more difficult for Clinton to win back large blocs of delegates. Ohio and Texas have a combined 334 pledged delegates at stake. A win of even 65% to 35% in those two states wouldn't catch her up--and no one believes she'll come close to that margin. If she wins by margins polls now suggest, it will be modestly--say 55-45%. But that only makes up 34 of the delegates, and leaves her trailing by 100.

Of course, I thought Clinton would win easily. Then Iowa happened, and then New Hampshire, and ....

posted 5 years, 3 months ago
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