2012 conventions 2012 election 2013 session 2013 special election arts arts and culture author ballot measures bomb books budget bullying business charlie hales children clackamas climate change coal courts crime culture culture club democrats drugs economy education environment family film fluoride food gay rights guns handguns health health care health insurance high school history housing immigration international internet kitzhaber law legislature lgbt literary arts living marijuana medicine mental health military minor parties mohamed mohamud movies music native americans news newspaper obama olympics oregon our town parenting pers photography police politcs politics port portland portland business journal portland mayor president prevention public safety religion republicans rnc romney rural salem sam adams sandy hook schools science shooting sports suicide supreme court taxes television terrorism theater third parties timber payments transportation union university of oregon violence washington water wildfire women

The study distracts from the big picture on salmon and dams: The Columbia River is no longer a functioning river (it is now a series of lakes) and has only 2-10% of its former salmon runs, for example the famous 'June Hogs' that ran up beyond where Grand Coulee dam is now are extinct. Chinook returns are currently 200,000 - 500,000 fish, a mere speck of the past runs. Read Jim Lichatowich's book Salmon Without Rivers for a compelling summary of this story. Also checkout www.stateofthesalmon.org if you want to see the level of our current knowledge and ignorance about the status of salmon on the Columbia and broader PNW and Pacific Rim.

We are at the point of marginal returns on the investment in trying to mitigate the effects of dams on the Columbia. Additional technological approaches will not bring any real improvements beyond what has already happened. The BPA has spent as of the mid 2000's about 3.3 Billion dollars on various approaches; trucking, barging, spilling, hatcheries, habitat restoration, but the real situation has not and will not change.

We should resist the take home message that technology will solve these issues or generate additionally useful knowledge beyond what we know to be the case in the macro picture. Read Richard White's (History professor at UW) book, the Organic Machine, for a succinct view of how humans have changed the Columbia through technology.

We should remove the dams on the Lower Snake River as part of a new energy policy that focuses on renewable energy sources. The Rand Corporation (2002) published a study that showed positive economic benefits in jobs and the general economy that would be generated from removing these dams. The work also confirmed that the lost power could be replaced by wind and solar. The NW Power Planning Council agreed with that finding on energy replacement.

Thomas Friedman in his new book - Hot, Flat and Crowded - discusses exactly why such an approach will constitute real leadership regionally, nationally, and globally. Those countries that figure out how to "green up" their energy systems will generate hugely positive economic and environmental benefits and attract investors and investment. There is no instrinsic reason that dams have to stay and pursuing a rational removal strategy (starting with the Snake as a careful process) will generate exactly the types of 3E benefits Friedman writes about - economic, environmental, and equity (social). We would greatly reduce impacts on salmon, generate new jobs, possibly recover some jobs in salmon fisheries, and attract new energy investments. Sure hydropower is "green" power, but its environmental effects are too great.

Specific issues with the study: 1) uses one year of data on the Columbia - thus there is no interannual variability in the work and this makes it hard to believe that it will stand up to broader peer review, 2) too many confounding variables - both the Columbia and the Fraser are impaired systems - this undermines the suggestion that the study is comparing a benchmark system with an altered system, 3) comparing hatchery vs. wild fish - the Columbia used hatchery fish from the lower Snake, the Fraser wild fish, again this is not a genuine comparison.

Let us not get distracted from the big picture.

posted 4 years, 7 months ago
view in context