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As a structural engineer, I am worried that people are too optimistic about the practical efficacy of the types of preparedness that are most commonly mentioned. It would be realistic to presume that, in the event of a subduction-zone earthquake, the death toll in Oregon would be similar to that experienced in the recent Chile earthquake, like that experienced in the Kobe, Japan earthquake, or even a good bit worse. This is because the adoption of appropriate building code provisions has done little to improve the older building stock.

Most of Oregon's buildings are untested by earthquake. Many of the engineered structures were built before serious earthquake provisions were adopted. Engineering practice here may not be as good here as in California (compare Kobe and Tokyo), for a number of reasons. The effectiveness of seismic remediation, as practiced here, has yet to be demonstrated. The cost of effective remediation on a broad scale seems to be more than society is willing to afford. This has been amply studied by the City of Portland.

My advice to emergency planners would be to think in terms of a death toll in the range of several hundreds to a several thousands in the event of a subduction-zone earthquake striking Oregon

Thomas B. Higgins

posted 3 years, 1 month ago
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I want to say that it has reached the point where it appears unwise to call the police in the event of some minor disturbance because of the increased risk of a violent outcome. In particular, as regards the mentally ill, family members, neighbors, teachers, health care workers and so forth seem able to adapt to their odd behavior and find effective, non-violent means of dealing with them. On the other hand, police seem to be trained and conditioned to use deadly force on the "non-compliant" mentally ill person if any threat whatsoever is perceived. This makes almost any other category of citizen more likely to be helpful in resolving difficult situations involving the mentally ill in a satisfactory fashion. The professional training of police - coupled with typical department policies - seems to have diminished their effectiveness as problem-solvers and has the population seeking different means of achieving "public safety."

posted 3 years, 2 months ago
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